Probability, not promises

Pirate Shop Token Odds Calculator

Enter your own assumptions. We’ll show the probability model, expected value, and chest targets—without calling any rate official.

Hypothetical example

Build your chest plan

0.05% is an example, not official

Assumed drop ratepercent per chest

Chests per match

Matches per day

Days

Chance of at least one

18.9%

Total chests

420

Expected tokens

0.21

For 50% chance

1,386 chests

For 90% chance

4,605 chests

For 95% chance

5,990 chests

Model: 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. It assumes every chest is an independent roll with a fixed probability. The actual game may not follow these assumptions. Expected value is not a guaranteed result.

How the calculation works

For an assumed per-chest probability p and n chests, the chance of at least one success is 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. The complement, (1 − p)ⁿ, is the chance that every chest misses.

Read the result carefully

The model assumes a fixed rate and independent rolls. Pity systems, changing loot pools, chest types, party rules, or other hidden mechanics would make the real process different. Expected value is a long-run average, not a promised quantity.

Last reviewed November 5, 2026.